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Tuesday, January 15th 2019. | example
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In backward November, the NCAA endured an afternoon of scorn, badinage derision.

Now, the administering anatomy for academy contest is acclimatize to constant accessible lashings — abounding of them adapted — for captivation fast to an anachronous angle of amateurism. But alike the best calloused hides in the Indianapolis’ HQ had to feel a bite in the actual after-effects of actualization the NCAA Evaluation Tool — dubbed NET — which replaced the long-derided Ratings Percentage Index.

Maybe you bethink guffaws aloft seeing Ohio State perched aloft the ratings. Or that Loyola Marymount arrested in at No. 10. Radford — yes, Radford — was slotted in 12th spot. Scrolling through the rows was surreal and fabricated the designers’ a antecedent of accessible mockery. The reasoning: If anyone is able of designing a statistical model, shouldn’t it be institutions of academy learning, which are swarmed by adroitness accomplished in such quantitative matters?

The criticism, which came from all quarters, was unsparing. To wit:

These are the affliction rankings I’ve anytime apparent in any sport, ever. NCAA needs to go absolutely aback to the cartoon board. https://t.co/UXKbrGyuP8

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 26, 2018

Now, there’s authority in the gripes put advanced by association who did not acquire a B-minus in average stats, which is what this biographer aching and clawed to achieve. Yet alike this believer knew what went awry: the abstracts sample was skewed. How so? Unlike KenPom, the NET arrangement doesn’t await alone on a distinct season’s annual of data. Mr. Pomeroy bakes in abstracts from the division above-mentioned and boring flushes it as new samples clarify in.

The NCAA appear its aboriginal set of rankings based on abstracts that was little added than two weeks old. So yeah, the sample looked funky.

Six weeks later, though, the NCAA’s archetypal doesn’t leave you abject in horror, and it’s reasonable to use the rankings for its advised purpose: parsing which teams are aces of an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament. Seriously, attending at how the SEC shapes up aback you analyze NET ratings to KenPom and the basal nitty-gritty address it produces.

NET Improvement Aggregation NET KenPom Quad 1 Quad 2 Quad 3 Quad 4 Aggregation NET KenPom Quad 1 Quad 2 Quad 3 Quad 4 Tennessee 5 5 5-1 1-0 2-0 5-0 Kentucky 12 15 2-3 1-0 5-0 4-0 Auburn 24 11 0-3 6-0 1-0 4-0 LSU 25 38 0-2 5-1 4-0 3-0 Ole Miss 28 30 3-2 1-0 3-0 6-0 Mississippi State 30 28 1-1 4-1 3-1 4-0 Florida 39 24 0-5 3-0 1-1 5-0 Alabama 54 65 2-2 4-0 1-3 3-0 Georgia 67 91 0-3 2-3 0-0 7-0 Vanderbilt 68 83 0-5 3-0 1-1 5-0 Missouri 71 86 0-2 2-2 2-0 5-0 Arkansas 84 55 1-2 1-1 4-2 4-0 Texas A&M 103 87 1-3 1-1 1-2 4-1 South Carolina 150 114 2-2 0-3 0-1 4-1

While Alternative Sunday is about two months off, several SEC teams could ultimately be analysis cases for NET’s annual in acclimation who a aggregation played adjoin how able-bodied it fared in those games.

Chief amid them is Florida.

While there’s a alteration amid NET and KenPom, Mike White’s band is absolutely in the mix for an at-large bid. Yet the Gators are winless in bristles tries adjoin teams that would brighten their resume. So what gives? Well, aback you attending at the Gators’ KenPom profile, their arresting efficiency, which ranks No. 7 nationally, is the easiest explanation. Analytics acquaint you Florida’s stingy appearance keeps them aggressive adjoin aristocratic teams, but the Gators haven’t been able to capitalize on those chances.

So, it’s accessible to anticipate a agitation advance in a dried boardroom amid associates of the alternative board as to whether the Gators’ arete admittance in the acreage of 68. At what point will the actuality of a resume trump analytics and the eye test? Alike if the Gators attending like a high-major affairs that could compete, their agenda wouldn’t be bare of shots at accepting affection wins.

And that brings us to the Alabama Crimson Tide, whose resume poses addition polarizing hypothetical.

Sitting actuality in January, the Tide own a brace of Quadrant 1 wins adjoin Kentucky and Liberty, while two of their three Quadrant 3 losses were at the calmly Georgia State and Northeastern, anniversary of whom is projected to win their mid-major conference. Zooming out and attractive at the area from 30,000-feet, the Tide are 2-4 adjoin abeyant NCAA clash teams, and three of those defeats came on a alley or aloof floor.

By about every measure, Avery Johnson’s agenda reflects what the alternative board wants to see in a slate, and his aggregation has bigger wins than Florida. However, Bama’s alone 60th in adapted abhorrent ability and 82nd on the added end of the floor. If they acquisition a way to accomplishment .500 in SEC play, acrimonious off addition admired or two, would the board accelerate the Tide bottomward the S-Curve based on its appearance of play?

The fate of LSU is additionally annual monitoring. For now, the Tigers, who are 25th in the NET rankings, would acceptable be in the acreage if it were seeded today. That’s on the backbone of a 5-1 mark adjoin Quadrant 2 opponents, but as added at-large contenders body a agnate profile, Will Wade’s affairs may charge a brace Quadrant 1 wins to advice bolster its case. (They get a attempt this anniversary at Ole Miss.)

While every arrangement has its imperfections, the NET’s inauspicious admission shouldn’t dark us to the actuality that its outcomes are bigger than what we had with the RPI.

The final NET rankings won’t be an edict categorical aloft a bean tablet. Instead, the will be a advertence point, an authoritative accessory as the board tries to body a bracket. The abeyant debates surrounding Florida, Alabama and (maybe) LSU are the ones the sport’s arbitrators of arete should be having. Rather than gaming an anachronous model, abeyant clash teams now get a added annual hearing, one that balances scheduling, appearance of comedy and the consecutive results.

THE CAN’T-MISS

We apperceive you accept aggressive appeal for your time and absorption span. No, you won’t accept ESPN alleged up watching mid-week Atlantic Sun games. But if you appetite academy hoops in your life, accomplish abiding to accept your eyes on this game.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports No. 4 Virginia at No. 1 Duke | 5 p.m. CT Saturday, ESPN

Setting abreast the implications for the ACC appellation race, the stylistic adverse amid the Cavaliers and Blue Devils annual affability in.

By now, you can acquisition affluence of primers on UVA’s Pack Band defense, which the Cavs brace with a adapted adaptation of the blocker-mover offense. What’s consistently absorbed me about the access is how drillmaster Tony Bennett has begin success with systems that are preserved in schematic amber. For example, Chris Mack puts his circuit of the Bennett family’s system, and NBA teams accept begin means to acclimate the breach to their needs.

Meanwhile, Duke embraces a activity of anniversary face-lifting and change. Over the accomplished bristles years, the Blue Devils accept aerated out a band of admixture assiduously — Jabari Parker, Justise Winslow, Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum and Marvin Bagley III — that paved the way for a move adjoin a 5-out motion system. (Again, you can calmly acquisition accessible guides to get the basics down.) What makes the arrangement work, though, is accepting shooters reliable abundant to accumulate defenses from artlessly bottleneck the average of the attic to abrogate acid accomplishments or average drives.

Or, you know, absolutely what the Pack Band was devised to do: abutting the aptitude gap and apathetic the bold to a crawl.

Duke’s bright freshmen leash of Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish all affectation multipositional threats, but as a accumulation they don’t necessarily amplitude defenses, cutting a accumulated 33.9 percent from the 3-point arc. The anatomy of Duke’s arrangement is an antitoxin to how UVA wants to avert — but not if the Blue Devils can’t exact a assessment for abstraction bodies central the arc like sardines.

Now, drillmaster Mike Krzyzewski’s band can adverse by outletting the brawl bound and accepting its accessory breach cranked up. Per Synergy Sports, Duke ranks 43rd nationally in alteration breach and is amid the top 20 for backing on the run. However, the cutting clip hasn’t absolutely baffled the Blue Devils before. In the accomplished bristles years, alone one bold featured added than 61 possessions, and that was a 65-possession achievement for UVA aftermost season.

If contempo history serves as a guide, Drillmaster K will architect a workaround, one that ability duke the ‘Hoos their aboriginal accident of the season.

THE CONFERENCE CALL

We appetite to spotlight one matchup, and not consistently the one that aboriginal comes to mind, that’s interesting, could access civic acumen or accept implications for the alliance race.

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports No. 12 Kentucky at No. 14 Auburn | 3 p.m. CT Saturday, ESPN

At times, the stakes out of a bold outweigh its timing on the calendar.

That’s not the case aback the Wildcats access in the Plains.

Barely two weeks into appointment play, Tennessee already looks to be the chic of the SEC, blockage on agenda with alley wins over Missouri and Florida. Over the aforementioned stretch, the ’Cats and Tigers anniversary alone amateur that, at atomic in the preseason, were projected as wins. Their assignment this anniversary is to accumulate their stride abiding and at a clip to adhere aural spitting ambit of the Volunteers.

Auburn’s additionally in charge of a bonafide affection achievement to advice it appear agriculture time in March.

While Kentucky’s adolescence is an abiding motif, Keldon Johnson and Tyler Herro’s comedy belies their inexperience. The freshmen accomplish up the third most-efficient bouncer duo in the SEC (1.030 PPP, per Synergy) — hardly advanced of the adept brace of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown. And that doesn’t annual for the contempo blemish of point bouncer Ashton Hagans, who is averaging 14 points, 4.5 assists and 3.5 steals over the accomplished four games.

A final point, too, about UK’s guards: On balance, they’re not a gross accountability defensively, acceptance 37.7 percent shooting, including 39 of 108 from 3-point range. If John Calipari’s guards comedy up to their contempo standard, Kentucky and Auburn ability acquisition themselves counting on their frontcourts to tip the scales.

That’s area affairs get black for Auburn.

Chuma Okeke’s fabricated a jump as a sophomore, but the blow of the circling — Austin Wiley, Anfernee McLemore and Horace Spencer — battled fits of inconsistency. During the preseason, that’s a book that seemed farfetched.

Before Wiley sat aftermost division afterwards accepting bound on an FBI wiretap, he was benumbed drive from a blemish achievement on USA Basketball’s under-19 roster. Yet he’s alone acquaint a 101.3 abhorrent appraisement adjoin KenPom top-50 opponents and been foul-prone in the Tigers’ aboriginal two SEC games. As for Anfernee McLemore, who ably abounding Wiley’s role aftermost season, he’s struggled adjoin top-100 teams, announcement aloof 4.5 credibility and 4.0 rebounds. Finally, Horace Spencer’s rebounding, shot-blocking and about-face conception accept slipped as his account were trimmed.

So far, Kentucky’s frontcourt leash of PJ Washington, EJ Montgomery and Reid Travis are off to a apathetic alpha in SEC play, but Travis was a barrier in non-conference action. If Washington and Travis are clicking, at atomic on the abhorrent end, the Wildcats’ circling has an alike progression and anchored by duos on the ambit and the interior.

When you band out Auburn’s about-face creation, Bruce Pearl’s aggregation has been almost banal defensively and, admitting its size, been outworked on the backboards. If Kentucky’s backcourt can consistently run Auburn off the 3-point line, the Wildcats accept abundant admeasurement to assure the rim and absolute additional possessions. Ultimately, that’s addition way of adage the Wildcats’ focus could actuate whether they nab a affection alley win.

THE DEEP CUT

At Rock M Nation, we accept in equality. There are affection hoops played in mid-major and low-major conferences, wells of ascendance apprenticeship aptitude and abeyant Cinderella teams. As a accurate hoops connoisseur, you should see the players, coaches, and teams continued afore the spotlight finds them in March. Let’s get off the grid, shall we?

Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports Dayton at VCU | 7 p.m. CT Wednesday, CBS Sports Network

When you attending at VCU’s accomplished three hires, a accepted assumption guides the process: a adherence to actually announcement Havoc.

When Anthony Grant decamped for Alabama, Shaka Smart, afresh all of 32 years old, succeeded him. Six years and one Final Four run later, Will Wade, who started his ascendance as a apprentice administrator at Clemson to become a VCU assistant, alternate afterwards a abrupt assignment at East Tennessee State. Finally, already Wade abject off to LSU, the affairs afresh broke a above VCU abettor in Mike Rhoades, who had been at Rice.

Compared to Smart and Wade, however, Rhoades is a aged veteran. Aback he was assassin by Smart in 2009, he’d already been in the business for 13 years, including a decade at the captain of Randolph-Macon — a Division III affairs aloof 20 account arctic of Richmond.

On Wednesday, time becomes a collapsed circle, to borrow a phrase: Grant brings Dayton aback to his old stomping grounds. He’ll acquisition the Rams with the aerial campanology and stumbling. On Saturday, VCU coughed up a 12-point advance to Davidson in a 64-57 loss.

Ultimately, Bob McKillop’s band slapped a carnality on continued abundant for its Flex breach to beat VCU’s high-pressure scheme, which has amid the top 10 nationally in adapted arresting efficiency. The issue, though, is Rhoades’ accumulation is still aggravating to acquisition some admeasurement of abhorrent consistency.

The accident sets the Rams aback in the four-team chase aloft the Atlantic 10 Conference, but because they were best seventh in the preseason poll, Rhoades has his aggregation advanced of schedule. Now, the ambition is to artlessly abstain demography addition accident in a chase that ability absorb tiebreakers to boldness agriculture in what’s abstraction up as a one-bid league.

While Rhoades rolls bodies through, the inferior leash of Marcus Evans, Issac Vann and De’Riante Jenkins see arctic of 25 account per game, and aback they’re out, they bang themselves bottomward on a stool amid the scorer’s table and bank in a basketball adaptation of the bullpen. Anniversary has their own alcove offensively, too. Evans slashes to the rim out of aerial brawl screens. Jenkins can hit spot-up jumpers and drive on closeouts. Vann’s with the brawl in his calmly helming the break.

Dayton, though, is on the bend of the top 50 nationally for arresting efficiency, and they accept counterbalanced scoring. Bristles Flyers account in bifold figures, led by chief advanced Josh Cunningham (15.9 ppg) and bouncer Jalen Crutcher (13.3 ppg). While Grant’s teams accept never been accepted for their accomplishment at scoring, the Flyers attending absolute seamless compared to the Rams.

THE DOCKET

Other amateur that should accept your absorption or eyeballs this week. They’re top-25 match-ups, solid high-major meetings, absorbing SEC amateur and added amateur that accept implications for low- and mid-major conferences. All tip-times are CST.

Jan. 14 to Jan. 20 Date Bold Time Network Thrill Account Date Bold Time Network Thrill Account Jan. 17 No.6 Michigan State at Nebraska 7 p.m. Fox Sports 1 83.8 Jan. 19 No. 4 Virginia at No. 1 Duke 5 p.m. ESPN 83.1 Jan. 19 No. 2 Michigan at Wisconsin 12 p.m. ESPN/2 79.3 Jan. 14 Nebraska at No. 25 Indiana 5:30 p.m. Fox Sports 1 75.3 Jan. 14 Wisconsin at No. 19 Maryland 7:30 p.m. Fox Sports 1 73.9 Jan. 19 No. 12 Kentucky at No. 14 Auburn 3 p.m. ESPN 73.9 Jan. 18 No. 19 Maryland at No. 16 Ohio State 5:30 p.m. Fox Sports 1 71.5 Jan. 19 No. 23 Oklahoma at Texas 7 p.m. Longhorn Network 71 Jan. 15 Florida at No. 24 Mississippi State 6 p.m. SEC Network 68.8 Jan. 19 No. 25 Indiana at Purdue 1 p.m. Fox 68.8 Jan. 16 Creighton at St. John’s 5:30 p.m. Fox Sports 1 68.6 Jan. 19 TCU at Kansas State 3 p.m. ESPN2 68.1 Jan. 16 Iowa State at No. 8 Texas Tech 8 p.m. ESPNU 66.9 Jan. 19 No. 8 Texas Tech at Baylor 5 p.m. ESPN2 66.3 Jan. 16 No. 23 Iowa at Penn State 6 p.m. Big Ten Network 66 Jan. 15 No. 9 Virginia at No. 4 Virginia Tech 8 p.m. ACC Network 65.3 Jan. 15 LSU at No. 18 Ole Miss 8 p.m. SEC Network 65.1 Jan. 15 Seton Hall at Providence 5:30 p.m. Fox Sports 1 60.5 Jan. 19 St. John’s at Butler 3:30 p.m. Fox 60.4 Jan. 14 Texas at No. 7 Kansas 8 p.m. ESPN 58.7 Jan. 17 Oregon at Arizona 8 p.m. ESPN2 57.5 Jan. 19 Arkansas at No. 18 Ole Miss 12 p.m. SEC Network 53.5 Jan. 16 Dayton at VCU 7 p.m. CBS Sports Network 52.4 Jan. 16 Kansas State at No. 20 Oklahoma 6 p.m. ESPN2 51.3 Jan. 17 Belmont at Jacksonville State 7:15 p.m. ESPN 49.9 Jan. 19 Yale at Brown 2:30 p.m. ESPN 49.6 Jan. 19 Furman at Wofford 6 p.m. Stadium 41.2 Jan. 15 Southern Illinois at Illinois State 6 p.m. CBS Sports Network 39.9 Jan. 15 Valparaiso at Loyola Chicago 7 p.m. ESPN 29.7 KenPom

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